Bromery Lectures: Nicholas Davis

Description

Dr. Nicholas Davis, from the Chemical Sciences Division of the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, will give a talk entitled "The Untapped Potential of Climate Modeling" for the Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences' Randolph Bromery Spring 2019 Seminar Series.

Abstract:

Climate model radiative forcing experiments and specified dynamics simulations -- in which the atmospheric circulation is constrained to historical variability -- are often used to assess mechanisms for circulation, chemistry, and climate changes. I will illustrate two new modeling techniques that address some of the limitations of these paradigms. Both techniques are predicated on isolating the dominant role of eddies in driving circulation variability and change.

One of these techniques separately models the eddy and mean flow parts of the circulation, providing some clarity on the likely mechanisms that drive Hadley cell expansion. Additionally, a new specified dynamics scheme that only constrains the anomalous part of the flow improves the representation of historical stratospheric upwelling trends and their impacts on stratospheric ozone.

I will discuss how these techniques can be generalized to other topics, including stratosphere-troposphere coupling and the coupling of the large-scale circulation with clouds and pollution. More broadly, I hope to convince you that there is unrealized potential in climate models that extends far beyond forcing experiments and climate prediction.