Election 2012: How the race will be won

Adam Sheingate, an associate professor in the Department of Political Science, writes about the upcoming presidential election showdown between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in the Spring 2012 issue of Arts & Sciences Magazine.

Looking ahead to this year's race, the congressional reapportionment following the 2010 Census has shifted the distribution of electoral votes across the country. States won by Obama in 2008 have lost a total of six electoral votes, which may change the calculus of the campaign slightly. More important, it is unlikely that Indiana or North Carolina, states Obama won narrowly in 2008, will go Democratic in 2012. States like Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida will be key battlegrounds for the campaign. On the other side of the column, McCain won Missouri by less than 4,000 votes in 2008; the state will be closely contested again this year.